A global crisis? | PULSAR and KAS report / hxdbzxy / Shutterstock
In early November 2024, PULSAR, the academic observatory of the University of Buenos Aires, and the Konrad Adenauer Foundation (KAS), published a Spanish-language report that analyzed the social approval of national governments in 16 countries across Western Europe, North America, and Latin America. The document compiled approval ratings of presidents and prime ministers from Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Canada, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, England, France, Germany, Italy, Paraguay, Peru, Spain, United States, and Uruguay, based on 2,385 published approval records and reports conducted by 2,260 specialized consulting firms between 2020–the onset of the COVID pandemic–and 2024.
The public opinion studies compiled were based on national samples of over a thousand cases, conducted through various methods (in-person, telephone, and online.) The question used to assess presidential popularity was the government approval rating (What is the level of approval of the president/prime minister? And, what is the level of approval of the president/prime minister’s management?) with dichotomous or paired responses (very good, good, bad, very bad.) Due to the different ways of phrasing and the variety of sources, the formulation of the question varies across countries. However, in all cases, the question pertains to the general approval of the government rather than, for example, presidential image, voting intention, evaluation of personal attributes, or approval of specific areas or moments within the government’s mandate.
Entitled “Power in Decline,” the study suggests incumbent political leaders are not the only ones rejected by their public; the modern administrative state itself faces growing distrust worldwide.
In the four-year period under study, it is possible to identify three distinct cycles of public opinion, consistent across the three regions studied.
The first cycle, the “honeymoon period,” was characterized by overwhelmingly favorable public sentiment toward national leaders and administrations, starting with the onset of the pandemic in 2020 and continuing through the end of 2021.
This period of positivity was followed by a sharp global decline in national government approval ratings, lasting from the beginning of 2022 to the end of 2023.
The final cycle, from late 2023 to September 2024, suggests that public trust in politics remains very low, despite a modest recovery in approval ratings in several instances.
In the graphics below, Figure 1 illustrates the fluctuations in national government approval over the past five years. During the first cycle, which coincided with the height of the global COVID crisis, the average approval rate rose to 50 percent, with valleys at high levels of 45 percent, and peaks reaching 55 percent. The following period records the lowest troughs in the historical series, leveling off to an average approval of 35 percent. The last cycle shows a slight recovery, around a 40 percent average approval—but still trailing the outstanding pandemic period
Figure 1
Source: PULSAR & KAS
An interregional analysis offers another significant finding. Graph 1 compares the approval ratings of national administrations across Western Europe, North America, and Latin America. Among these regions, North America exhibits the most stable average approval. While it shares the general trend of reaching approval peaks between 2020 and 2021, the subsequent decline, though consistent, is less dramatic compared to other regions. In contrast, Latin America shows sharp fluctuations between highs and lows, coupled with some notable upturns at the beginning of new presidential terms. Finally, Western Europe has the lowest average approval rates and has encountered the most significant struggles in regaining social support since reaching such high levels during the pandemic.
Figure 2
In sum, the data presented in this report reflects a troubling outlook for most national governments. Not only has the reelection rate for incumbents been extremely low in recent elections, but newly elected governments (which might expected enjoy a measure of approval simply because of their election) also do not enjoy high levels of public support. It is normal for governments to lose support as the years pass; what is unusual, and noteworthy, is the low levels of public support with which new governments begin their mandates.
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Looking at the results of this report, we might hypothesize that national government approval ratings are on the decline because societal demands are greater; that is, the higher the expectations, the greater the disappointments. However, other public opinion surveys suggest that the reasons for these results are more complex.
A national survey conducted by GALLUP in June 2024 reveals alarmingly low levels of trust among Americans regarding most of the institutions measured. As shown below in Figure 2, it is not only the executive branch but all political institutions, including Congress, the criminal justice system, and the US Supreme Court, that have lost the trust of Americans. Furthermore, the cross-temporal comparison depicted in Figure 3 highlights the steady decline in trust across nearly every significant institution.
Figure 3
Source: GALLUP
Figure 4
Source: GALLUP
Similar results appear in surveys conducted in Western Europe and Latin America, as seen in reports produced by Eurofound Latinobarometro.
An investigation of the relationship between political institutions and those central to civil society, shows that the decline in trust extends to media, banks, and the medical system.
In addition to the low level of trust in many of the central institutions of a modern state, is an even more concerning trend: the extreme divisions within societies themselves, which manifests as both ideological polarization Political Polarization in the American Public, and a simultaneous rise in intolerance of differences in political allegiance. How can collective bonds be strengthened if there is widespread distrust toward the political system—toward marginalized social groups? How can we rely on institutions that we hold in such low regard? How can democracy function when divergent opinions are despised and the right to hold them rejected as illegitimate?
These public opinion surveys remind us of the many challenges many modern states face, raising the question of whether the time has come to reevaluate the foundations of liberal democracies. The institutions that established those democracies find their legitimacy under threat. Will the same fate befall the underpinning social contracts?
