Farmworkers at harvest (2024) | F Armstrong Photography / Shutterstock
Donald Trump’s accusation, in the 2024 presidential debate, that Haitian immigrants in Ohio were “eating pets” may have quickly proven false, but it still led to sweeping policy action. Soon after Trump was inaugurated, the administration abruptly terminated the Cuban, Haitian, Nicaraguan, and Venezuelan (CHNV) humanitarian parole programs, pulling the rug from under more than 500,000 people who had been granted legal temporary status and work authorization. This sequence of events—inflammatory rhetoric, rapidly followed by punitive policy—highlights how immigration debates in the United States can impact hundreds of thousands of lives, with complex societal effects.
In recent years, immigration has become a focal point of political discourse and policy debates in the United States. Punitive immigration policies and increased enforcement have been bipartisan trends long before the Trump era: Obama made record deportations and expanded enforcement programs; Bush increased border security and visa restrictions in the aftermath of 9/11; and Clinton militarized the border with operations like Gatekeeper. Now, as the nation grapples with demographic shifts, economic challenges, and security concerns in the wake of Trump’s rapid-fire policy changes, it is crucial to examine the multifaceted impact of immigration on American society.
Immigration plays a major role in US population growth. Between 2023 and 2024, new Americans (those arriving through immigration) accounted for up to 84 percent of a 3.3 million-person increase that brought the population to 340 million. This trend is expected to continue, with immigrants and their descendants projected to make up 88 percent of the population growth between 2022 and 2065.
These figures are especially relevant given the country’s declining birth rates. Without significant immigration, the US population is projected to slow, peaking sometime between 2035 and 2043, before beginning a gradual decline driven by lower birth rates and an aging population. While anti-immigration pundits claim this growth is overwhelming local populations, the March 2025 report by Mark Mather demonstrates that migrants are actually propping up communities.
Despite claims by Trump, Vance, and Miller portraying immigrants as lazy tax-dodgers and job stealers, as well as burdens on the economy, the economic impact of immigration is largely positive. A comprehensive 1997 study by the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine found that immigration expands total production and increases incomes for native-born workers. Moreover, a report released by the National Academies in 2017 revealed that immigrants often pay more in taxes than they receive in government benefits over their lifetimes.
Recent research from the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco found that for every percentage point increase in employment growth from immigrant workers, job vacancy rates declined by nearly 0.5 percentage points. In other words, immigration helped address acute labor shortages during the pandemic recovery, especially in industries like leisure and hospitality.
Beyond filling labor gaps, immigrants contribute to innovation and productivity. A study by the National Bureau of Economic Research, first published in 2022 and updated in 2025, found that immigrants make up 16 percent of all US inventors, yet they contribute to 23 percent of the nation’s total innovation output, as measured by patents, citations, and economic value.
Tax contributions from immigrant labor further strengthen government services. A study by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas (2017) found that the average new immigrant reduces the federal budget deficit by over ten thousand dollars during their lifetime.
Data on the contributions of undocumented immigrants is particularly striking: Analysis by the Institute on Taxation and Economic policy estimates that undocumented immigrants alone paid $96.7 billion in federal, state, and local taxes in 2022. Such data indicates that undocumented immigrants actually bolster public resources. In 2022, for every one million undocumented immigrants, approximately $8.9 billion was contributed in federal, state and local taxes, reducing the strain on public resources.
As the United States grapples with funding Social Security and Medicare for an aging population, immigrants—who are often younger and of working age—can help shore up these vital programs.
The Trump administration’s recent policy proposals and executive orders aim to drastically reshape US immigration policy. These include attempts to end birthright citizenship, deploying military forces to the southern border, and implementing more restrictive immigration measures. Such actions could have profound consequences for the US economy and society.
Ending birthright citizenship—a right guaranteed by the 14th Amendment—could increase the unauthorized immigrant population from 11 million to 16 million by 2050, creating a marginalized population excluded from education, healthcare, and employment, as well as basic rights and protections, at risk of becoming a permanent underclass.
Meanwhile, ending birthright citizenship would require a complex system to verify the citizenship status of all newborns—a strange outcome for an administration claiming to oppose federal bureaucracy.
Similarly, legal and ethical concerns about deployment of military forces to the US-Mexico border should be accompanied by the understanding that implementing restrictive immigration policies comes at a great cost to taxpayers. A recent House Homeland Security Committee report estimates that the ongoing migrant crisis at the southern border could cost taxpayers up to $451 billion annually. Moreover, a study by the American Immigration Council projects that a one-time mass deportation operation targeting both undocumented immigrants and recent arrivals would cost at least $315 billion. A conservative estimate breaks down as follows: $89.3 billion for arrests; $167.8 billion for detention; $34.1 billion for legal processing; $24.1 billion for removals.
Reduced immigration could shift net migration from over 1 million to negative740,000 in 2025. This would have an acute economic impact, potentially lowering GDP by $130 billion in the first year. The Brookings Institution projects that restrictive immigration policies could reduce 2025 GDP growth by between 0.1 and 0.4 percentage points, or by $30 to $110 billion.
This economic downturn, coupled with the likely acceleration of population, would also have a considerable effect on the social services discussed above.
One of the Trump administration’s frequent justifications for harsh immigration policy is the claim that immigrants are more prone to criminal behavior than native-born citizens. By this logic, sanctuary cities would show increased crime rates, where undocumented immigrants overwhelm law enforcement, and border militarization is necessary to prevent crime. But studies have consistently debunked the myth at the heart of this rationale. In fact, the American Immigration Council found that both documented and undocumented immigrants are significantly less likely to be incarcerated than native-born citizens. Immigrants in general commit fewer crimes, arguably due to their desire to avoid law enforcement attention that could lead to deportation.
A study by Cato Institute found that the conviction rate for undocumented immigrants in Texas was 50 percent lower than that of native-born citizens for all crimes in 2015. For violent crimes specifically, undocumented immigrants had a conviction rate of 0.85 per 100,000 people, compared to 1.53 per 100,000 for native-born residents.
It naturally follows that sanctuary cities (jurisdictions that limit cooperation with federal immigration enforcement) are not, in fact, hotspots for crime. For instance, a 2019 study by Schutt found no statistically significant differences in violent crime, property crime, or total crime rates attributable to sanctuary policies. On the contrary, analysis of FBI crime statistics shows that sanctuary counties actually experience 35.5 fewer crimes per 10,000 people compared to non-sanctuary counties. Immigration may actually ease burdens on local law enforcement: A study by Han & Piquero (2022) indicates that neighborhoods with higher immigrant populations experience lower rates of violent and property crime than predominantly native-born neighborhoods.
In fact, US Customs & Border Protection statistics from 2025 show the vast majority of people apprehended at the southern border are nonviolent individuals, family-units, and unaccompanied-minors, many of whom are fleeing violence and persecution in their home countries.
Immigration remains a critical factor in shaping America’s demographic and economic future. The evidence shown so far suggests that immigration has largely positive effects on the US economy, contributing to innovation, productivity, and overall economic growth. Therefore, policies that severely restrict immigration or undermine the rights of immigrants could have significant negative consequences for the nation’s long-term prosperity.
Policymakers should consider alternative approaches that balance economic needs with social considerations. Firstly, any immigration reform requires a comprehensive approach: Border security should be accompanied by the provision of pathways to legal status for undocumented immigrants already in the country. Meanwhile, the root causes that drive irregular migration—such as economic hardships, lack of decent work opportunities, and violence and insecurities—must be addressed and reduced through the development of foreign aid and economic cooperation programs.
A points-based system could prioritize immigrants with skills that complement the US labor market, addressing specific industry needs and promoting innovation. The successful integration of these new arrivals into American society could be boosted by government investments in language training, job placement services, and civic education. Above all, immigration policies should be based on rigorous and up-to-date economic and demographic research.
By leveraging immigration as a tool for economic growth and demographic balance, the United States can ensure its continued vitality and competitiveness in the global economy.
